Open Thinkering

TB871: Archetype 5 — Arms race

• MSc Systems Thinking, TB871, System Archetypes, Systems Thinking

Note: this is a post reflecting on one of the modules of my MSc in Systems Thinking in Practice. You can see all of the related posts in this category. 

The classic ‘arms race’ is Archetype 5, introduced in Activity 2.26. Most people will think of political situations such as the Cold War or perhaps even Brexit, but it’s applicable elsewhere, too.

In the escalation archetype, person A (or group A) takes action that is interpreted as a threat by the other person B (or group B), and this causes B to react by also taking some action. If this action is interpreted as a threat by A, then A will of course take further action, and so on. This produces what is often called an ‘arms race’.

(The Open University, 2020)
Diagram of "Archetype 5: Arms race" showing two balancing feedback loops where Action by A creates a Threat to B, and Action by B poses a Threat to A, with both influencing the other's actions in a reinforcing cycle.

While I don’t think library services have enough resources (sadly) in the UK in 2024 to be entering into an arms race, I’m going to treat this as a thought experiment. Let’s imagine that there is a popular library and popular bookshop in the same town and they both want to attract authors to book signings.

Flowchart titled "Archetype 5: Author events" depicting two balancing feedback loops that show the effects of author events on library visits and bookshop sales with indications of positive and negative impacts. Each loop is labeled "BALANCING loop" with interconnected actions and consequences.

Unlike political arms races, I can’t help but think that the above situation would be pretty awesome, lead to great outcomes, and make quite a cosy (and very British) film.

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